Effective Load-Carrying Capability of Renewable Distributed Generation in Active Distribution Systems with Dynamic Demand Response

Document Type : Research article

Authors

1 East Azarbayjan Power Distribution Company,Tabriz,Iran

2 Department of Electrical Engineering, Shab.C., Islamic Azad University, Shabestar, Iran

10.61882/jgeri.2026.2090972.1116
Abstract
Environmental concerns and the depletion of conventional energy sources have led to the widespread adoption of Renewable Distributed Generation (RDG) over the last decade. However, because of the intermittent nature of renewable resources, expanding RDG to a capacity level commensurate with system needs remains a major challenge for utility companies, especially in long-term planning. Within the Smart Grid (SG) paradigm, the growing diversity of demand-side resources allows the system to operate more flexibly, but it also introduces additional dynamics and uncertainty that affect the reliability contribution of RDG. This paper proposes a composite reliability framework that jointly models Renewable Distributed Generation and Demand Response (DR) to compute the Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) of RDG in a Distributed Generation System (DGS). DR is represented at two interdependent levels — an instantaneous response captured by a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and a mid-term load-recovery process captured by a fuzzy model driven by a Brownian-motion discount rate — so that both the participation uncertainty and the inter-temporal rebound behavior of consumers are reproduced. An adaptive variable-step Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS) is then used to locate, for each scenario, the reference generation capacity that reproduces the same Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) as the RDG unit, from which the ELCC is obtained. Case studies on the IEEE 38-bus distribution test system show that, for a 50%-PV/50%-WT penetration mix, the baseline ELCC without DR is 29.51%, DR raises this value to as much as 40.28% (1.36 times higher) when DR capacity is increased by 30%, and the ELCC can reach 47.84% when the WT–DR and PV–DR correlation coefficients are 0.27 and 0.57, respectively. These results confirm that neglecting DR in ELCC studies produces a systematic and non-negligible error in the estimated reliability contribution of RDG.

Keywords



Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 October 2026

  • Receive Date 07 June 2026
  • Revise Date 28 August 2026
  • Accept Date 09 October 2026
  • Publish Date 09 October 2026